Key points

• There are 1194 gastroenterologists across the UK, a 3.6% expansion on last year.
• It is predicted that we need 6.1 full-time consultants per 250,000 population, a total of 1980, or 786 more.  This is achievable over the next 7 years if there is 7% expansion, the trainees are already enrolled.
• For the next 4 years there are a potential 100 CCT holders in excess of predicted retirements. Currently there are 83 more than 6 months post CCT, without a substantive post.
• 64% of CCT holders from 1.10.10-30.9.11 do not have a substantive consultant post yet.
• It is appropriate to reduce the total number of training posts now to avoid a further increase in trainees above this who would gain CCTs beyond 2018.
• National requirements in the future, e.g. screening programmes, 24 hour 7 day working, are likely to increase the number of gastroenterologists needed.